# Future ebikes by a Specialized engineer



## mtbbiker (Apr 8, 2004)

Not sure if this has been posted before, but interesting video. 
They go over battery size, motor weight, watt output nominal and max, etc...





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## ziscwg (May 18, 2007)

The tech will keep getting better. We also have the advantage of being able to duplicate/use the tech that goes into electric motorcycles.

One of the things that interest me is fuel cells charging your bike while riding. 
Like this, but bigger...
https://www.horizonfuelcell.com/minipak

Or maybe a method to hybrid power your ebike. You could carry a fuel cell for the extra range.


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## honkinunit (Aug 6, 2004)

ziscwg said:


> The tech will keep getting better. We also have the advantage of being able to duplicate/use the tech that goes into electric motorcycles.
> 
> One of the things that interest me is fuel cells charging your bike while riding.
> Like this, but bigger...
> ...


ebikes are already hybrids, human and electric.

Smaller and lighter batteries/fuel cells/electronics/motors will bring more and more riders into the fold. Ebikes haven't even begun to take advantage of things like AC motors, wireless charging, standardized battery configurations, etc.

The "ebike" is a good example of new possibilities being constrained by backward-looking regulations, and backward-looking attitudes. We see it in the US right now with the controversy about trail access. At the end of that video, the Specialized engineer is asked whether eMTB will eventually make MTB obsolete? I think his answer really came from an attitude that everyone will want an eMTB over a non-eMTB, but I have made the point many times that what really should happen is that an MTB and an eMTB should be the SAME bicycle. The amount of extra hardware necessary to accommodate a small motor and battery should not weigh more than a pound or two. IMHO, the vast majority of riders would love a trail bike that only weighs 2 pounds more, and had the capability of *adding* the motor/battery for certain rides. The motor/battery unit can be sized to match the ride you are about to do. Fazua has this concept nailed, just not perfected. If I am about to go on a flat 10 mile ride over rollers, I don't need a motor. A ride with 2000 feet of climbing on a rougher trail, maybe I want my mini-motor/battery. For the 40 mile epic with 6000 feet, I want the monster setup. It should all be the same bike, and with air suspension that we have, it should be easily doable in *one* bike chassis. Maybe you swap in more robust wheels for the epic?

On a tangent, there have been 100% human powered vehicles that hit 85MPH. Today, we are basically bolting motors on to traditional bicycles, but what if we rethought the entire form factor? An e-recumbent makes a ton of sense as a road vehicle, since the major drawback of a recumbent design is climbing and accelerating from a stop. Cruise at 30 MPH with a faired recumbent, with a fan powered from the e-battery to help cool/heat you, and the motor only working when necessary. Sounds like a commuter vehicle that could make a difference, but the regulatory agencies would go apeshit. Is it a bike, a motorcycle, a scooter, a car, how can they get tax money, what about AIRBAGS? 20MPH for you! Also, the average commuter is not going to go for a 2-wheeled recumbent, because there is a handling issue, an on/off issue, etc. Recumbent trikes would be a solution for a lot of these people, but they take more room in a bike lane or on the path, and to change all of the existing bicycle infrastructure would take decades and cost Billions.


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## mtbbiker (Apr 8, 2004)

ziscwg said:


> The tech will keep getting better. We also have the advantage of being able to duplicate/use the tech that goes into electric motorcycles.
> 
> One of the things that interest me is fuel cells charging your bike while riding.
> Like this, but bigger...
> ...


The hydrostik that powers the minipak is only 14wh, by the time you get to 500wh, it'll be the same size or maybe bigger. I know as the technology matures, it will get better and smaller. 
I believe right now in the car industry only Toyota is trying something different with the hydrogen powered Miria. Most are still embracing electric motors and battery packs. I bet the bike industry keeps following what technologies we see come from cars. Just my opinion.



honkinunit said:


> ebikes are already hybrids, human and electric.
> 
> Smaller and lighter batteries/fuel cells/electronics/motors will bring more and more riders into the fold. Ebikes haven't even begun to take advantage of things like AC motors, wireless charging, standardized battery configurations, etc.
> 
> The "ebike" is a good example of new possibilities being constrained by backward-looking regulations, and backward-looking attitudes. We see it in the US right now with the controversy about trail access. At the end of that video, the Specialized engineer is asked whether eMTB will eventually make MTB obsolete? I think his answer really came from an attitude that everyone will want an eMTB over a non-eMTB, but I have made the point many times that what really should happen is that an MTB and an eMTB should be the SAME bicycle. The amount of extra hardware necessary to accommodate a small motor and battery should not weigh more than a pound or two. IMHO, the vast majority of riders would love a trail bike that only weighs 2 pounds more, and had the capability of *adding* the motor/battery for certain rides. The motor/battery unit can be sized to match the ride you are about to do. Fazua has this concept nailed, just not perfected. If I am about to go on a flat 10 mile ride over rollers, I don't need a motor. A ride with 2000 feet of climbing on a rougher trail, maybe I want my mini-motor/battery. For the 40 mile epic with 6000 feet, I want the monster setup. It should all be the same bike, and with air suspension that we have, it should be easily doable in *one* bike chassis. Maybe you swap in more robust wheels for the epic?


Interesting take and Fazau appears to be leading this trend! When I ride solo, which is often, I've got my power set so low: eco 40% trial 50% boost 100%. I don't use majority of the time my full battery or motor power. But of course that changes some when riding with fellow Ebikers.


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## J.B. Weld (Aug 13, 2012)

honkinunit said:


> At the end of that video, the Specialized engineer is asked whether eMTB will eventually make MTB obsolete? I think his answer really came from an attitude that everyone will want an eMTB over a non-eMTB, but I have made the point many times that what really should happen is that an MTB and an eMTB should be the SAME bicycle. The amount of extra hardware necessary to accommodate a small motor and battery should not weigh more than a pound or two. IMHO, the vast majority of riders would love a trail bike that only weighs 2 pounds more, and had the capability of *adding* the motor/battery for certain rides.


I don't think so, not yet anyway. IME most people who ride appreciate the simplicity of a bicycle and have no desire to add a motor to it.


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## vikb (Sep 7, 2008)

J.B. Weld said:


> I don't think so, not yet anyway. IME most people who ride appreciate the simplicity of a bicycle and have no desire to add a motor to it.


It's hard to say what will happen with future generations. The folks I ride with look at the fact a mountain bike is 100% human powered as a feature not a bug. OTOH if you train kids to see motors as essential for humans to move around they may come to view that as the normal state of things and human powered movement as a historical point of interest.

The whole question may not matter for long with e-sports and VR coming on really fast. Why leave your house and ride an e-bike locally when you can just plug in and ride your VR-bike through an Amazon rain-forest trail with whatever level of fitness you care to dial up? No motors. No charging. No actual bike to store and maintain. Lower cost since you'll already own a computer and just need the VR-plug in which will also be your "TV/monitor" and function for other activities like entertainment and work.


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## mountainbiker24 (Feb 5, 2007)

People spend a lot of money to save grams. I'm not one of those people, but I would buy custom if all the mass produced options added a pound or two of ugliness.


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## J.B. Weld (Aug 13, 2012)

vikb said:


> It's hard to say what will happen with future generations. The folks I ride with look at the fact a mountain bike is 100% human powered as a feature not a bug. OTOH if you train kids to see motors as essential for humans to move around they may come to view that as the normal state of things and human powered movement as a historical point of interest.
> 
> The whole question may not matter for long with e-sports and VR coming on really fast. Why leave your house and ride an e-bike locally when you can just plug in and ride your VR-bike through an Amazon rain-forest trail with whatever level of fitness you care to dial up? No motors. No charging. No actual bike to store and maintain. Lower cost since you'll already own a computer and just need the VR-plug in which will also be your "TV/monitor" and function for other activities like entertainment and work.


I agree, it's hard to say what the future will bring. Electric bikes have great potential and could benefit lots of people but like you said, for now it seems most riders see 100% human powered as a feature of bicycles and not something that needs to be fixed. I talk to lots of cyclists and a good percentage of them agree that adding a motor assist complicates and clouds the inherent simplicity, and thus the appeal of a bicycle.

*this isn't meant to be anti-ebike and I don't mean to derail the thread, just responding to honkinunit's comment.


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## vikb (Sep 7, 2008)

J.B. Weld said:


> I agree, it's hard to say what the future will bring. Electric bikes have great potential and could benefit lots of people but like you said, for now it seems most riders see 100% human powered as a feature of bicycles and not something that needs to be fixed. I talk to lots of cyclists and a good percentage of them agree that adding a motor assist complicates and clouds the inherent simplicity, and thus the appeal of a bicycle.


I understand your point of view and I share it. I was waiting for some friends at a LBS last weekend and the sales guy spent 10mins valiantly trying to convince me that I needed a wireless dropper and wireless shifting. I pointed out that cable droppers/shifting worked great. Were cheaper and easier to service. So adding a couple batteries I needed to charge just complicated my riding life for marginal gains in some limited areas.

I could tell he was thinking "But, but, but...it's new and cool and the latest bling!?!?!?"

One of my favourite bikes to ride is rigid and single speed so maybe I'm just weird like that.


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## 33red (Jan 5, 2016)

I have a more macro view.
The economy will crash, way toooo much debts, personal and governemental.
Lots will become vegan to save money.
Lots will use Ebikes to save $$.
City, hybrids, roads and mountain.
The Ecar is plain stupid. Still parking problems, still traffic jams.
Will it be in 3 or 6 years?
The future will tell.


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## J.B. Weld (Aug 13, 2012)

33red said:


> I have a more macro view.
> The economy will crash, way toooo much debts, personal and governemental.
> Lots will become vegan to save money.
> Lots will use Ebikes to save $$.
> ...


Hmm, I see e-bikes as somewhat of a luxury item that's dependent on a strong economy. For the same price I think most people would prefer some sort of scooter that doesn't require any type of physical exertion. Also think most will continue to prefer some sort of car (ecar included) because they can carry lots of stuff and have a climate controlled environment.


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## 33red (Jan 5, 2016)

J.B. Weld said:


> Hmm, I see e-bikes as somewhat of a luxury item that's dependent on a strong economy. For the same price I think most people would prefer some sort of scooter that doesn't require any type of physical exertion. Also think most will continue to prefer some sort of car (ecar included) because they can carry lots of stuff and have a climate controlled environment.


When you bypass the high cost of brand marketing Ebikes will be 1,200$US so compared to a 12,000$ car the choice will be obvious. The car is the luxury item.
50 years ago people were buying cars. Now they rent them. It started as a 3 year plan than 5 now 7. That proves people are broke and simply living above their means. At some point it becomes unstainable. They rent *smart phones* etc. Cars will be rented by the hour more and more.


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## b1rdie (Mar 11, 2011)

Marketing speaks louder than engineering at specialised unfortunately.


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## Vespasianus (Apr 9, 2008)

33red said:


> I have a more macro view.
> The economy will crash, way toooo much debts, personal and governemental.
> Lots will become vegan to save money.
> Lots will use Ebikes to save $$.
> ...


What do the poor or people who lost their license use now? There is your answer. And it ain't an ebike.


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## mtbbiker (Apr 8, 2004)

J.B. Weld said:


> I don't think so, not yet anyway. IME most people who ride appreciate the simplicity of a bicycle and have no desire to add a motor to it.


I think it all depends on whether you enjoy climbing or not. I've been mountain biking for over 30yrs and never enjoyed the climb. I did lots of climbs and I can't say any ever put a smile on my face. But on the other hand point me downhill and you can't wipe the smile off my face. 
People with similar viewpoints of climbing, I bet view ebikes the same way I do. 
I've been ebiking for about 6 months now. Just a year ago, you'd rarely see an ebike. Then it almost seemed out of know where, ebikes just exploded and in So Ca. I see ebikes all over the place. 
If ebikes aren't in your neighborhood yet, don't worry they are coming. Within 5yrs, the technology will be smaller, and lighter. I bet most ebikes will be between 35 to 40lbs.

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## vikb (Sep 7, 2008)

mtbbiker said:


> I think it all depends on whether you enjoy climbing or not.


That's why the argument never makes any sense to me. Pedaling to go up is part of the sport that I like in mountain biking. I'll choose to ride up over a shuttle or a lift.


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## mtbbiker (Apr 8, 2004)

vikb said:


> That's why the argument never makes any sense to me. Pedaling to go up is part of the sport that I like in mountain biking. I'll choose to ride up over a shuttle or a lift.


And there's nothing wrong with your belief in what you think mountain biking is. What's wrong is when people with your definition tries to make others feel bad about their choice in ebikes. Not everyone shares in your belief of what mountain biking is.

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## rancher52 (Aug 16, 2019)

Most our forgetting China, Asia, is has been the fastest growing market in fact e-bike are manufactured there because of logistics ,30-40 millon ebikes sold in China per year, more ebikes on Chinese roads than vehicles, verses the 400,000 exported to other countries including USA, which is still a tiny fraction , This trend is growing around poorer nations and congested cities, Its just beginning 

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## J.B. Weld (Aug 13, 2012)

rancher52 said:


> Most our forgetting China, Asia, is has been the fastest growing market in fact e-bike are manufactured there because of logistics ,30-40 millon ebikes sold in China per year, more ebikes on Chinese roads than vehicles, verses the 400,000 exported to other countries including USA, which is still a tiny fraction , This trend is growing around poorer nations and congested cities, Its just beginning
> 
> Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk


I think most of the e-bikes in China are electric scooters with pedals bolted on, much like the petrol mopeds widely used in the 70's and 80's. That's the way it appears anyway, I could be wrong.

Because of their explosion in numbers parts of China are experiencing problems due to them and they're taking action.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadeshepard/2016/05/18/as-china-chokes-on-smog-the-biggest-adoption-of-green-transportation-in-history-is-being-banned/


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## Klurejr (Oct 13, 2006)

J.B. Weld said:


> I think most of the e-bikes in China are electric scooters with pedals bolted on, much like the petrol mopeds widely used in the 70's and 80's. That's the way it appears anyway, I could be wrong.
> 
> Because of their explosion in numbers parts of China are experiencing problems due to them and they're taking action.
> 
> https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadeshepard/2016/05/18/as-china-chokes-on-smog-the-biggest-adoption-of-green-transportation-in-history-is-being-banned/


Interesting article, but those conveyances in the photos of that Article are Electric Scooters, they are not eBikes, no one is pedaling those things.


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## Harryman (Jun 14, 2011)

Klurejr said:


> Interesting article, but those conveyances in the photos of that Article are Electric Scooters, they are not eBikes, no one is pedaling those things.


Pedaling ebikes isn't required in Asia or in the most of the US.....


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## honkinunit (Aug 6, 2004)

You have to step back from your hobby/sport and look at the bigger picture when discussing "ebikes". As Harryman pointed out, there is no law (in most places anyway) saying you have to pedal an "ebike", just that it must have pedals to qualify as one. 

"Pedelec" is the industry term to differentiate those bikes that must be pedaled for the motor to assist the movement of the bike. 

There are over 100 Million "ebikes" in China, but the vast majority are not pedelecs. 

That number is insane. On teh plus side, imagine all of the two stroke exhaust being replaced but 100 million "ebikes". On the other hand, what do you do with 100 Million+ worn out ebike batteries?


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## Harryman (Jun 14, 2011)

honkinunit said:


> "Pedelec" is the industry term to differentiate those bikes that must be pedaled for the motor to assist the movement of the bike.


It's actually a term specific to the EU legislation, so not entirely interchangeable with our class system here. Pedal-assist can be used on anything without a throttle though.

https://ecf.com/what-we-do/road-safety/electric-bicycle-pedelec-regulation

Good point on the battery issue. All those ebikes are a plus in Asia replacing cars and 2 strokes, but not as angelic as we'd all like.


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## rsilvers (Aug 23, 2015)

Thinking a eMTB will make a MTB obsolete is like thinking an electric guitar will replace the guitar.


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## standa11 (Nov 12, 2008)

honkinunit said:


> On the other hand, what do you do with 100 Million+ worn out ebike batteries?


https://recyclinginternational.com/...ccess-of-lithium-ion-battery-recycling/26899/


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## Gutch (Dec 17, 2010)

Harryman said:


> It's actually a term specific to the EU legislation, so not entirely interchangeable with our class system here. Pedal-assist can be used on anything without a throttle though.
> 
> https://ecf.com/what-we-do/road-safety/electric-bicycle-pedelec-regulation
> 
> Good point on the battery issue. All those ebikes are a plus in Asia replacing cars and 2 strokes, but not as angelic as we'd all like.


Dammit Harryman, why do you have to be so smart?! I've followed your posts for awhile and you are always accurate and spot on. MTBR should be thankful you're a moderator ?


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## Sanchofula (Dec 30, 2007)

I agree, but I t's more than that, there are many people who don't need an ebike, they have the fitness and the ability to fully self power their bike. Like runners, hikers, skiers, not everyone wants or needs assist.

What I take issue with is ebike advocates who insist all bikes in the future will be ebikes. This thinking may be their way of justifying their choice to ride an ebike, but it's not anywhere near reality.

It's a futile discussion, just leave alone and avoid lumping everyone together to rationalize your choices. Just do what you do and avoid worrying about others.



J.B. Weld said:


> I don't think so, not yet anyway. IME most people who ride appreciate the simplicity of a bicycle and have no desire to add a motor to it.


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## Gutch (Dec 17, 2010)

Choices...


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## 33red (Jan 5, 2016)

Nurse Ben said:


> I agree, but I t's more than that, there are many people who don't need an ebike, they have the fitness and the ability to fully self power their bike. Like runners, hikers, skiers, not everyone wants or needs assist.
> 
> What I take issue with is ebike advocates who insist all bikes in the future will be ebikes. This thinking may be their way of justifying their choice to ride an ebike, but it's not anywhere near reality.
> 
> It's a futile discussion, just leave alone and avoid lumping everyone together to rationalize your choices. Just do what you do and avoid worrying about others.


It is their job to worry about others.
They are paid to advertise.
Calling that guy an engineer is admitting the diploma was issued by the trump university.
He is saying do not think the choice does not exist.
Like the millions of used bikes are now illegals.
Buying one will send you to jail.
I always laugh earing that is what the industry is offering now like if i have to buy the **** being offered now.


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## matt4x4 (Dec 21, 2013)

There are people out there putting both gasoline engine and electric engine and selling them. The fabricators are skilled and the look of their product is good. I believe its like a 200cc engine. Its good for silently moving through a crowd, on a boardwalk for example. Then you can switch to gasoline in a wooded OHV area for example.



honkinunit said:


> ebikes are already hybrids, human and electric.


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