# e-MTB's AT SEA OTTER



## fos'l (May 27, 2009)

This is an attempt to solicit thoughts on the plethora of e-bike activity at Sea Otter. There must have been 30 manufacturers with new e-bikes there, some like Currie with four different manufacturer's mid-drives on their various entries or Haro who blasted on the scene with 10 models. Wondering why there was so much activity since I don't see much happening in the marketplace. Some bike shop owner friends think it's because they expect the market to blossom as riders age out. Perhaps it was primarily for the European press.


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## Mr Pig (Jun 25, 2008)

Bike industry. Two words, all you need to know.

The industry pushes ebikes because it's a new way of making money. That's it. What else is there to talk about?


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## Harryman (Jun 14, 2011)

Part of it is a chicken and egg scenario, there's little to zero demand in most areas of the US for emtbs since most riders have never seen one, let alone ridden one. The only way to grow demand is to get them in shops and people to demo them. 

The industry specific press has been selling them hard for a couple of years using Euro sales numbers as bait to extrapolate the same sales to the US. 

No manufacturer or shop wants to miss the boom if there is one, so they're all frantic to have their bikes on the floor when it hits. 

I'm not saying it's exactly the same thing, but this happens from time to time with the latest greatest thing ever. 5 years ago, fat bikes were in almost everyone's bike line, they sold a pile of them, and everyone who wanted one, now owns one, and the fat bike market collapsed back to sustainable numbers. 

It's hard to say what the "boom" will be like here, it's true a good chunk of the riding population is aging, and emtbs here have the potential to run rings around emtbs sold elsewhere, so they could be fun enough to appeal to the go fast crowd as well. Price will always be a factor, since they're $1-2k more than a comparable mtb, and access will be a big part of it as well. 

While there are many individuals in the bike industry that are passionate about the power of bicycles and by extension ebikes to change people's lives and the world for the better, the ONLY reason bike companies sell bikes, ebikes and emtbs, is to make money.


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## fos'l (May 27, 2009)

Harry, Thanks, very interesting. e-bikes have the potential to increase the market with buyers who wouldn't consider buying a "bike" and probably will generate more revenue in parts/repairs so guess everyone needs to be on the bandwagon. Be interesting to watch the circus.


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## Harryman (Jun 14, 2011)

Obviously, I'm not in ebike central where I live, but I've spent a fair amount of time riding in Europe and talked to ebike riders there and I lurk all sorts of eforums and without question the potential for the greatest growth is for commuter/comfort street bikes among people who have never ridden as adults, or gave up riding a decade or more ago, who either want to use them as a transportation alternative or just because they've discovered it's really fun to ride a bike that isn't a ton of work. I see endless "I haven't ridden a bike since I was a kid/(fill in the blank) and ebikes are the greatest thing ever!" threads and almost without exception, they're riding on the street and bike paths.

Even with a motor providing power, it's difficult to learn to ride a mtb and requires more infrastructure commitment and effort, since most people usually have to travel to get to a trail head instead of heading out of your driveway on a street bike. And, riding an emtb is physical and requires effort. Crusing around the park on a paved bike path doesn't. Almost all emtbs will be sold to existing mtbers, which is a much smaller market and a few people who are new to riding offroad that are being brought to it by a buddy or SO. As well as a some moto guys looking for a way back on the dirt. 

I don't think emtbs will create hordes of new riders, it will for sure get some guys up off the couch who used to ride but stopped for various reasons, and absolutely bring more money into shops. I haven't gotten a handle on the used emtb market, I think since the tech is advancing so fast a 5 year old emtb isn't going to keep much value, as well as the fact that batteries have a finite life and are stupid expensive. A Levo battery is $900 for example. So, we'll see how much buying used will lower the barrier of entry like it does with mtbs.


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## fos'l (May 27, 2009)

Harry, the other consideration is weight since very few e-MTB's are less than 50 pounds. Getting them to the trails is another challenge. It's just that I was flabbergasted by the level of interest at the show, but like you said noboby wants to miss out if they become popular and there's always Europe.


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## Harryman (Jun 14, 2011)

Yep, until I've seen the threads about bike racks, I had no idea they were weight limited and aren't all ebike worthy


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