# Next Gen Battery Tech



## Klurejr (Oct 13, 2006)

https://gizmodo.com/teslas-will-reportedly-get-a-major-battery-boost-next-y-1848413301





> Panasonic will reportedly begin mass-producing new lithium-ion batteries as early as 2023 that could increase EV range by up to 20%, according to a Nikkei report.
> 
> The 4680 cell (46mm x 80mm) is twice as large as the previous generation but brings a fivefold increase in capacity, so you can use fewer cells and get more juice. As the report notes, the new cells would increase the Model S’s range from about 650 kilometers, about 405 miles, to 750km, or 465 miles.
> 
> Better yet, the batteries are 10-20% cheaper to produce, and since you don’t need to use as many, could lead to lower EV prices (batteries make up about 30% of the cost of an EV, according to Nikkei). Tesla CEO Elon Musk said last year that the next-gen cells are six times more powerful and reduce cost-by-kWh by 14%.


I am curious how far behind EV's this tech will be arriving in eBikes. More power with less batteries and a reduced price seems like it could be a big win for the eBike segment.


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## NS-NV (Aug 15, 2006)

My guess is 2025. Hopefull, it will be the same time we see integrated motor & transmissions, and the death of the E-Derailleur.


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## Bigwheel (Jan 12, 2004)

Don't expect them to be any lighter. Ebike companies need to focus on using 2170 cells first. They are readily available and can be tailored in some cases to retrofit into existing architectures. As far as internal trannies don't expect them to be any lighter either. I'm waiting for the Segway feature to appear personally. It's hell to get old.


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## Jayem (Jul 16, 2005)

A bigger battery cell is even more constraining as far as frame design. That seems kind of like the opposite way to go...


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## sheatrock (Jul 23, 2009)

The next big improvement will be solid state batteries. 
2,5 times the energy density by weight.
None of the safety issues of the current chemistry.
Expected to first be used in hyper cars in the 2025.
The E-bike application sounds perfect.
What is a Solid-State Battery And Why You Will Want One | Dragonfly Energy


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## pwd666 (Nov 9, 2021)

Jayem said:


> A bigger battery cell is even more constraining as far as frame design. That seems kind of like the opposite way to go...


Exactly (for bicycles). I've built battery packs for e-bikes and 21700 cells are really as big as I'd want to go; the space available in the average bicycle frame is just too limited. If you don't need a large power output or total capacity; then the space matters less.


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## thasingletrackmastah (Nov 15, 2005)

Solid-State Batteries Promise Electric Car Popularity Boost, But Technical Mountains Await


Solid state battery technology will provide the breakthrough soon to make electric cars mainstream. That has been the claim for some years now, but the finished product is unlikely to emerge before 2030, giving rival technologies now considered also-rans like fuel-cells the chance to win.




www.forbes.com


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## alexbn921 (Mar 31, 2009)

I've been dealing with batteries for over 30 years and pushing them to there limits with RC cars/planes.

THERE IS NO MAGIC BATTERY COMING!

Even when solid state is commercially viable it will have comparable energy to volume/weight as Lipo batteries. Every year batteries get 2-3% better. This is the way. This will continue for at least the next 10+ years.

The main thing in the near future is simply producing enough quality batteries for everything!


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## Jayem (Jul 16, 2005)

thasingletrackmastah said:


> Solid-State Batteries Promise Electric Car Popularity Boost, But Technical Mountains Await
> 
> 
> Solid state battery technology will provide the breakthrough soon to make electric cars mainstream. That has been the claim for some years now, but the finished product is unlikely to emerge before 2030, giving rival technologies now considered also-rans like fuel-cells the chance to win.
> ...


Solid state tech from Toyota and VW is just around the corner.. They've both been fairly quietly working on this and have production models planned. The first versions are supposed to be around 2x energy density, up to around 3x, compared to Lipo. With the range of stuff like Lucid starting to appear on the market, I agree that it's not like everything is suddenly going to go 3x, as in they would probably rather have a smaller lighter battery that gets 500 miles rather than a heavier one that gets 700, for most applications, likely with smaller ranges and smaller battery sizes as options/base models.


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## alexbn921 (Mar 31, 2009)

Jayem said:


> Solid state tech from Toyota and VW is just around the corner.. They've both been fairly quietly working on this and have production models planned. The first versions are supposed to be around 2x energy density, up to around 3x, compared to Lipo.


Vaporware. It's barley working in the lab with no roadmap to volume production and even when it does it will start with less energy density. Long term it will outpace Lipo, but that is 15+ years from now at a minimum.

Lipo and LFP are the current best and getting billions of dollars pumped into increasing production capacity.

Quote from the article linked.
"Anyone banking on solid-state technology providing the magic bullet path to electric success by then is going to be disappointed."


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## Jayem (Jul 16, 2005)

alexbn921 said:


> Vaporware. It's barley working in the lab with no roadmap to volume production and even when it does it will start with less energy density. Long term it will outpace Lipo, but that is 15+ years from now at a minimum.
> 
> Lipo and LFP are the current best and getting billions of dollars pumped into increasing production capacity.
> 
> ...


Solid state batteries are quite common already, they just have some technical hurdles for scaling up and use in the more extreme environment a car is intended to operate in.

I've been watching other articles and information on this tech. The Forbes article didn't address some of the other developments and research into it, not to mention they just ended with "we remain skeptical of Toyota". That's fine, Toyota may not deliver in time, but they've also been doing this for a while and doing it pretty quietly. Their foray into the hydrogen/fuel cell stuff has been largely subsidized research by the Japanese government, with no intention of actual production. I'm not sure if you are drawing your numbers just from the Forbes article, but I've seen others that suggest this is only a few years away...a hell of a lot closer than nuclear fusion.


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## sheatrock (Jul 23, 2009)

alexbn921 said:


> I've been dealing with batteries for over 30 years and pushing them to there limits with RC cars/planes.
> 
> THERE IS NO MAGIC BATTERY COMING!


Not meaning to create tension but if you have been dealing with batteries for 30 years you have seen the change in technology from
Alkaline to NICd to nickel metal-hydride to lithium-ion all would be considered major leaps in technology. The current push towards electrification of cars means that there is there is tremendous amount of money being poured into R+D looking for lighter, safer more power dense solutions. Toyota recently announced there intention to use solid state batteries in their hybrid vehicles in 2025.
FWIW i'm a retired engineer and spent the last 20 years working R+D in the energy sector. Mostly with fuel cell systems that require batteries for storage and to absorb load changes.


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## 2021Mach6 (Jan 19, 2021)

I'd pump the brakes a bit on these expectations. Battery tech has been relatively slow in other applications, like phones and laptops. It's a battle between design and efficiency, and most optimization is done via software, which isn't all that helpful in e-bikes (unlike a display on a phone). They'll improve, but we hear about these huge leap forwards all the time and they never seem to happen ... At least not instantly. 

IMO just like every other industry, it'll be small, incremental improvements over a much longer period of time than some people might hope for.


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## alexbn921 (Mar 31, 2009)

I keep track multiple sources of information on all aspects of battery development all the way down to the mining of raw materials.
Solid state batteries are the future, but that future is not even going to start for at least 10 years. Then starting a zero it will be another 20 years before capacity has been built to replace future Lipo/LFP investment.


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## alexbn921 (Mar 31, 2009)

sheatrock said:


> Not meaning to create tension but if you have been dealing with batteries for 30 years you have seen the change in technology from
> Alkaline to NICd to nickel metal-hydride to lithium-ion all would be considered major leaps in technology. The current push towards electrification of cars means that there is there is tremendous amount of money being poured into R+D looking for lighter, safer more power dense solutions. Toyota recently announced there intention to use solid state batteries in their hybrid vehicles in 2025.
> FWIW i'm a retired engineer and spent the last 20 years working R+D in the energy sector. Mostly with fuel cell systems that require batteries for storage and to absorb load changes.


I've gone threw all the cutting edge batteries and don't see any solid state batteries even reaching parity with Lipo before 2030. Even then we will be talking about 1000's of cars vs 10's millions conventional BEV's

I hope I'm wrong. I really do. Batteries are the future that everything will run on and they not good enough. 

FYI Hybrids are stupid. You have all the problems of gas and electric. Get on with it and make a real car instead of half a$$ed compliance $hitboxes.


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## davec113 (May 31, 2006)

alexbn921 said:


> THERE IS NO MAGIC BATTERY COMING!


I tend to agree with this. Media likes to exaggerate and goal #1 is to generate clicks...


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## Bigwheel (Jan 12, 2004)

Is comparing battery tech being targeted at the auto industry to that of the eBike industry fair going forward? Sure, Tesla started out with 18650 cells and then went to 21700 cells and now are touting 4680's. While eBikes were lucky to be able to piggy back onto the former two cell sizes the larger 4680 will pose problems, unless done as frame specific, but until someone gets ahold of enough to build a battery who knows....Regardless the tech will show up in auto's/moto's first and hopefully what they come up with will cross over into eBikes of the future. And by then they may not even have wheels!


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## matt4x4 (Dec 21, 2013)

Before the obvious solid state batteries I think there will be more wh stuffed into the usual sizes 18650's etc etc 26650 etc etc prismatics etc
Then more discharge rate
Then more charge rate
The usual c-rates challenges.
Then less voltage sag due to temperature
Maybe some materials used in casing to help keep cells cool
Maybe some new mixes and chemicals, like computers advance tremendously every 5 years, so do batteries. I remember building ebikes with lead acid batteries hahahahahaha heck ebikes are still sold with lead acid batteries at walmart, same with the stand up razor scooters.


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## alexbn921 (Mar 31, 2009)

Specialized 700wh battery is 4x10 21700 batteries.
It has about 20 amp hours and is 42v to 33v depending on charge.
It's max C amp draw is 20ish with 15 being sustained max. This is less than 1C and causes very little voltage drop.
It's max charge is 4A and this is .25C. 2C charge up to 80ish% is possible and 1C is the standard zero damage charge setting.
Weight matters more than volume.
The only thing bike batteries need now is better charging and less weight per watt hour.

Give me a better charger! There is absolutely no reason to take longer than an hour to charge the battery. Hell, I have a charger that will work, but all manufactures use proprietary ports and custom interfaces. 

On my 1/10 4x4 RC truck I have a max discharge of 35C. Talk about voltage sag.


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## Klurejr (Oct 13, 2006)

alexbn921 said:


> Specialized 700wh battery is 4x10 21700 batteries.
> It has about 20 amp hours and is 42v to 33v depending on charge.
> It's max C amp draw is 20ish with 15 being sustained max. This is less than 1C and causes very little voltage drop.
> It's max charge is 4A and this is .25C. 2C charge up to 80ish% is possible and 1C is the standard zero damage charge setting.
> ...


Seems to me that swappable batteries are an even better option than fast charging. Pop the used one out and put in a fresh one, get back on the trails. Charge em when you get home.


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## alexbn921 (Mar 31, 2009)

Klurejr said:


> Seems to me that swappable batteries are an even better option than fast charging. Pop the used one out and put in a fresh one, get back on the trails. Charge em when you get home.


Battery is $1400 US. If you can find one.


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## matt4x4 (Dec 21, 2013)

Swappable battery? Why cant you just carry along a spare battery, take out the used battery out and install the new battery, should not take to long at all. I carry two batteries on my ebike, I just unplug the one 36v battery that has xt90 connectors and plug in the other battery with the same xt90, nice big xt90 connector is easy even with gloves on compared to PP's or XT60's or bullet connectors or molex.


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## PierreR (May 17, 2012)

matt4x4 said:


> Maybe some new mixes and chemicals, like computers advance tremendously every 5 years, so do batteries.


 Batteries have quadrupled in power density over the last 100 years. The hype has been millions of promises and a new technology about every 25 years. Computers have quadrupled about every 4 years with real promises. 

I think future battery changes will mostly be in modular designed batteries with better software and electronic controls. E bike range will improve but battery power density will be slow to improve. There is room for much improvement between power drawn from a battery vs power delivered to the bicycle tire. I think controller design is more promising than the next greatest thing, just around the corner, in batteries. 

Battery chemistry changes will go on at a snails pace just like replacement of silicon chips with carbon chips in the electronics industry.

As far as real accelerated research goes, I think its in the dark ages again. Free money with outcomes attached has corrupted science beyond repair without a total breadown of the current system. The real scientific method is out the window.


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## Bigwheel (Jan 12, 2004)

As well as the auto industry cordless tools have been doing much to accelerate the advancement of battery tech. They relate a bit better to bike use because they are also space compromised and weight is a concern? Not much info on these pouch cells that Dewalt is coming out with performance wise but their form factor could be good for bike use.






POWERSTACK | DEWALT


The 18V DEWALT POWERSTACK™ Compact Battery utilizes revolutionary pouch battery cell technology to make it our most powerful and lightest weight battery.




www.dewalt.co.uk


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## Suns_PSD (Dec 13, 2013)

The responses and expectations in this thread are much more realistic than they are, say at the Tesla forum where a bunch of know nothing fanboys make some really fanciful, yet lacking any true insight, outrageous claims.

Agree with the consensus that battery tech will continue to progressive rather slowly.

Solid State sounds great, but the proof is in the pudding, obviously.


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## Suns_PSD (Dec 13, 2013)

alexbn921 said:


> FYI Hybrids are stupid. You have all the problems of gas and electric. Get on with it and make a real car instead of half a$$ed compliance $hitboxes.


This is probably the one statement in this thread I completely disagree with.

EV vehicles, particularly pickup trucks and work vehicles, with small inexpensive generators used as range extenders will greatly expand the use of EVs until battery tech does make that rather large leap. This 'hybrid' tech will allow lighter, less expensive battery packs as less battery range will be required. And there are no problems with gasoline generators. In fact ICE cars are considerably more reliable than straight EVs at this point. A generator (no drivetrain) will be cake to maintain. Change the 3 quarts of oil every 3 years. That'll basically be it.


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## Varaxis (Mar 16, 2010)

I wonder what a battery pack would look like if the cells inside were replaced with 4680. Maybe some might get creative, reshaping the down tubes to accommodate. I heard the pack become more "structurally" part of the chassis on cars, carrying some load and offering rigidity.

If I'm reading correctly, 1 one of these cells replace 5+ smaller ones. So if a Spesh pack uses a 4x10 config...






The pack would get bigger if 4680s were used. They're a lot girthier than 4 batteries nested together, and taller.

If brands are only thinking in terms of fitting batteries inside a frame's tubes, I guess they're limited to a belt-style battery config, or like an old D-cell flashlight config. I like the brands that make a serious effort to get weight low and centered, utilizing all the space between the wheels even below the down tube, but I guess they start looking less like a bicycle.










^ the Lapierra Overvolt GLP, that kicked butt in E-EWS races, seemed kind of clever with its battery location with weight balance/distro in mind for high performance handling. They worked with what the Bosch offered, to make the most out of it.










^ I'm reminded by this battery tech that isn't just a straight, rigid shape.

Besides this battery cell architecture milestone, there's the chemistry milestones which change from Lithium-Cobalt to Lithium-Sulfur or Lithium-Air, which might prove to still be good for mobility, solving the crap related to cobalt cells turning into fireworks and cobalt mining being unethical, while improving affordability. I see lots more room for improvement here in the future. Electric motors, not so much... maybe power band optimizing to make the most out of differing traction conditions. If transmissions get integrated, it'd be amusing to see backup systems evolve, to allow them to work in case of a fault, to allow someone to keep using it as an unpowered bike.


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