# Be patient . . . and work a lot



## 33red (Jan 5, 2016)

I just read a french article. In summary it said
Shimano the leader in medium and high end parts supplier is not ready to invest to increase capacity. 
A- it would take 2 years to get more products out
B- they do not know what the demand will be in 2 years
(maybe many who just tried biking will sell their bike so less demand for new bikes)

The thing is there is a solid trend of many in the middle income class seing their income decrease.
For green reasons and money reasons bikes sales will be up for the next 5-10 years.
When the demand is high = big profits.
The order a bike on paper/website is possibly a new reality for some years.
Some bike parts are now scheduled to be delivered 400 days after today if you place the order today.
Maybe you will find fast or at a good price but many simply will not.


----------



## smartyiak (Apr 29, 2009)

Don’t you think these delays will temper some demand? I, for one, am not ordering anything that I won’t see for over a year. Things change, sometimes significantly, in a year...so I’m just not willing to commit to such a huge purchase with that kind of delay.

I'm sure many will, but others will just move on.

Do you have a link to the article? I’m wondering about the logic of “income decrease = higher demand.” I suppose it’s: cheaper to ride a bike than buy gas. BUT, my guess is that its the opposite. Not that a car is cheaper...what I mean is: to many, bikes are a play thing. When income goes down, play things get axed. Johnny and Susie still need rides to school...groceries from the Acme (that’s 3 miles away bc we live in the burbs) for the family of five need picking up...and so on.

The suv/minivan isn’t going anywhere. The reduced income will cause cutbacks in some areas...but it won’t cause that family to run out and bikes. That’s me totally guessing though.


----------



## 33red (Jan 5, 2016)

smartyiak said:


> Don't you think these delays will temper some demand? I, for one, am not ordering anything that I won't see for over a year. Things change, sometimes significantly, in a year...so I'm just not willing to commit to such a huge purchase with that kind of delay.
> 
> I'm sure many will, but others will just move on.
> 
> ...


If i can find that article i will add it to the thread.
Obviously the planet is big so in different areas realities are not the same but there are tendencies. A big thing in Montreal, Quebec and Canada is less cars. A couple with only 1 car. An example my 66 years old brother and his wife are retired with a nice income they manage with one car. His older son about 42 with 2 childs has a car and his wife has a moped. Many just commute by bike and with the electric options bikes/ebikes are just a fast efficient way. The demand makes more cities put more bikepaths. More drivers are frustrated being stuck in traffic seing bikers pass them. Interest rates will go up so for many this wil raise the price of a car. And you know people see others arriving at work with their helmet, ask and new bikers say possibly they loose weight, they like it, etc...
The old monkey see, monkey do.
Many fallowed the SUV thrend in the last 20 years.
This might just be the next big wave the 2 wheelers.
With working from home the world in 2025 will be different than it was in 2015.
Obviously the future is tough to predict but London wich was early at taxing cars to enter the city
announced to limit the covid they will promote and facilitate more bike commute.


----------



## 33red (Jan 5, 2016)

Here is a link to the article Vélo : le japonais Shimano ne tient pas le rythme


----------



## Gman7 (Jul 11, 2008)

33red said:


> I just read a french article. In summary it said
> Shimano the leader in medium and high end parts supplier is not ready to invest to increase capacity.
> A- it would take 2 years to get more products out
> B- they do not know what the demand will be in 2 years
> ...


... and theft will be higher.


----------



## Noplacelikeloam (Mar 2, 2021)

33red said:


> I just read a french article. In summary it said
> Shimano the leader in medium and high end parts supplier is not ready to invest to increase capacity.
> A- it would take 2 years to get more products out
> B- they do not know what the demand will be in 2 years
> ...


Its more complex than that. Its about the dynamics of supply chain management and the bullwhip effect. What you are seeing now is not simply because they cant keep up, its an attempt to tame the effect of irrational and reactional buying behaviour all the way through the supply chain. Look up 'The Beer Game'. Its an MIT developed game where you can play this for yourself and see what happens when you over prepare or over purchase. The effects can be catastrophic.


----------



## TNC (Jan 21, 2004)

Not sure I'd take any economic, marketing, or manufacturing advice from any source as it relates to the global environment in either the recent past or the future...but I especially wouldn't take it from Shimano. When the dark clouds of covid were looming, Trek's Burke rang up Shimano and told them to send just about everything they had and could make for future Trek production. Shimano even had a meet with Burke to question his sincerity on the order...after all they didn't want one of their big cash cows to go under.

I don't know how Burke had such a functional crystal ball, but he saw opportunity where others saw doom. Even as the pandemic grew, but bike/component sales soared, Shimano still didn't see it as a long term wave to surf. Will the wave crest in the short term future and come crashing down? I certainly don't know, but this pandemic caused a core shift in the way many, many people look at life and recreation in general, and I tend to lean more toward the bicycle market maintaining quite a bit of steam for years...and maybe perpetuity. Instead of a passing fad, it may be that many new and especially older bike owners had overlooked how sophisticated and fun bicycles had become instead of the antiques still stuck in their memory banks from childhood. That "hoped for" opportunity envisioned by many long time cyclists where these newcomers will be dumping their high dollar purchases for pennies-on-the-dollar bargains may or may not actually occur.

This lack of foresight for Shimano has meant other component manufacturers are filling the hole left by Shimano...to some degree. This is a good thing. It was a bit like GM getting too big for their britches.


----------

