# How Long Will e-MTB's Be a Niche Market in the US?



## fos'l (May 27, 2009)

Sales appear slow around here in spite of the industry's attempts to generate interest. AFAICT, bike shop owners and their employees need to start riding them in order to have a better knowledge base, but are too tentative to "make the plunge" What are other opinions?


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## abelfonseca (Dec 26, 2011)

MTBs are a niche market! E-mtbs are a niche within a niche.

Cheers


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## AGarcia (Feb 20, 2012)

Yep. Niche within a niche. An expensive niche at that. So I don't think it grows beyond that anytime soon


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## fos'l (May 27, 2009)

Thanks, really good points FOR ME; guess I'm pretty obtuse.


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## Harryman (Jun 14, 2011)

abelfonseca said:


> MTBs are a niche market! E-mtbs are a niche within a niche.
> 
> Cheers


Thems the facts


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## leeboh (Aug 5, 2011)

Without getting into the deeper discussion of legality/motors etc. The big issue is where to ride them? MA is an issue, as well as some areas with lots of people/hikers and crowed trails. Seems the trails where they are OK tend to be away from the larger population centers. General attitude in the US tends to shy away from motors as needed or wanted for outdoor rec, IMHO. This would be more coming from the "outdoor" purist sense. The hikers, xc ski and snowshoe, telemark/climbing skins, and mt bikers. Long time bike commuter here. Year round and get about 2,000 bike commuter miles per year. The headway/bigger market/increase seems the commuter market and then mt bike spill over. Cargo bikes and general commuting bikes are seeing an uptick at least in my general Boston area. That with the bike share program and more bike lanes. So, niche. Within a niche. That and the 5-8K entry price. Hold out for those $ 800 e fat bikes from wally world? Are they already out there? For mt bikers wants and needs? Not me. Heavier bike, less agile with a motor? Plus lots of money, lots. How's that beta max thing working out? What is a good product that few want? A dust collector? Just some thought here from the other side.


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## Klurejr (Oct 13, 2006)

The price is a bigger restriction than access IMO, perhaps in MA, but I think even you mentioned that some shops are selling eMTB's in that state without informing customers they are not legally allowed on any trails in that state.


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## Harryman (Jun 14, 2011)

There's definitely the chicken and egg thing, with the industry trying to create demand where it doesn't exist. There's essentially zero demand here and since there are limited places to ride them, I can't see the emtb demand growing exponentially. There are shops selling them and there are people on the trails riding them, but the city has just recently clarified their code and signage hasn't gone up yet, so ebike regs are not general knowledge either way. Once it is, it'll be interesting to see what happens on the retail side of things. One of the shops that had their levos front and center when you walked in the door, didn't have any on the floor last time I went in. I'd guess shops will switch to pushing ecommuters since bike paths will be legit.


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## leeboh (Aug 5, 2011)

Klurejr said:


> The price is a bigger restriction than access IMO, perhaps in MA, but I think even you mentioned that some shops are selling eMTB's in that state without informing customers they are not legally allowed on any trails in that state.


 There are just a few( 6, I think) of state public ORV areas. 3 way out west in the boonies and some closer to the south shore area. So, yes there are some but very limited.


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## Mr Pig (Jun 25, 2008)

fos'l said:


> How Long Will e-MTB's Be a Niche Market?


Forever. I'm sure the price will come down but they will never be cheap. Reasonable quality mountain bikes are already expensive, average joes don't buy those as it is, so no way they'll stump up for an ebike which costs even more.

I predict that some of the people who have ebikes at the moment will get bored with them, especially when they need costly parts, the battery fades, they break down and have to be pushed for miles etc. As they get older they'll get less reliable. I expect you'll see really cheap ones hit the market soon and they'll be even less reliable.

In short, I think it will always be a small market.


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## Walt (Jan 23, 2004)

If batteries got cheap enough, and costs came down a lot, I think they could be maybe 5-10% of the total mountain bike market. There are plenty of older folks and out of shape people who would enjoy a class 1 e-bike, but they tend to see mountain biking as something only done by crazy adrenaline junkies (I don't know how many times I've had the "you mountain bike? That's so dangerous!" conversation with people who regularly road ride out in traffic). I don't think large numbers of younger/fit riders will want them, unless derestricting them becomes popular. And I doubt the moto crowd will be interested unless quite a bit more power/speed is available. 

But who knows? Unless there's widespread popularity, it's hard to see the various motorized vehicle bans (ie BLM, USFS, various states/localities) being modified to allow e-bikes. So as Harry said, chicken and egg. 

-Walt


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## WoodlandHills (Nov 18, 2015)

Given the high cost of eMTBs, higher than MTBs, they may be a pretty big niche as far as total dollar value of all sales for a given brand. If the average eMTB sale is twice (or more!) the amount as the average MTB sale, that can add up pretty quickly.


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## WoodlandHills (Nov 18, 2015)

Mr Pig said:


> Forever. I'm sure the price will come down but they will never be cheap. Reasonable quality mountain bikes are already expensive, average joes don't buy those as it is, so no way they'll stump up for an ebike which costs even more.
> 
> I predict that some of the people who have ebikes at the moment will get bored with them, especially when they need costly parts, the battery fades, they break down and have to be pushed for miles etc. As they get older they'll get less reliable. I expect you'll see really cheap ones hit the market soon and they'll be even less reliable.
> 
> In short, I think it will always be a small market.


 I have cheap DIY kit eMTBs and I've never had the motor and battery give any problems: the only wear and breakage has been on the bicycle parts. I've got over 2000 trail miles on two of these things and the power traina are working like new, still strong and silent. I don't know about the quality of the big OEMs, but it should be at least as good as the stuff sold by Luna Cycle and my batteries have well over a hundred charge cycles with no degradation.


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## eFat (Jun 14, 2017)

Don't you think there is a future for rental eMTB? For winter resorts looking for alternatives in the summer or National Parks (not on hiking trails but maybe new ones as alternative to road closed to individual traffic).

Is it possible to rent eMTB in Moab for example? It looks like the perfect place.


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## JACKL (Sep 18, 2011)

Considering all the people paying $6000 for standard mtbs, e-bikes should do very well from a cost perspective. In fact the higher prices may make them more attractive to well-heeled buyers. Could be considered a status symbol. Mtbs might soon be considered a poor mans e-bike.


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## Mr Pig (Jun 25, 2008)

JACKL said:


> In fact the higher prices may make them more attractive to well-heeled buyers.


So they'll be a niche product then?


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## WoodlandHills (Nov 18, 2015)

Mr Pig said:


> So they'll be a niche product then?


 Sure, just like mechanical watches are today: a niche in a wider market. But then again, it's probably not a bad thing to be Rolex or Patek........ I think they are still keeping their heads above water.


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## Harryman (Jun 14, 2011)

eFat said:


> Don't you think there is a future for rental eMTB? For winter resorts looking for alternatives in the summer or National Parks (not on hiking trails but maybe new ones as alternative to road closed to individual traffic).
> 
> Is it possible to rent eMTB in Moab for example? It looks like the perfect place.


Sure, judging by what I've seen in Europe, there's plenty of rentals. I don't think they will be huge numbers though compared to individually owned.

Ski resorts have already figured out that hauling riders up on the lifts works out pretty well in the summer.

There's lots of places you could ride them in Moab, I'd worry about newb riders killing themselves there though on an ebike, it's a very unforgiving place to ride. At least with bikes, a non rider is limited by fitness to where and how far they can go.


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## WoodlandHills (Nov 18, 2015)

JACKL said:


> Considering all the people paying $6000 for standard mtbs, e-bikes should do very well from a cost perspective. In fact the higher prices may make them more attractive to well-heeled buyers. Could be considered a status symbol. Mtbs might soon be considered a poor mans e-bike.


 This could happen if more 5-star resorts in other countries offer then to guests in lieu of scooters or ATVs. As everyone who has ridden one will tell you:ebikes are fun and once you are exposed to them it is easy to learn to like them. If the public begin to associate them with exotic places and exclusive high status lifestyles, the price premium of ebikes over regular bikes would not be a drawback. We are an aspirational society, and if some idiot like Gweneth Paltrow posts on Goop that ebikes are perfect for chakra alignment and vaginal steaming and that inspires a Kardashian to post a video of makeup tips for ebiking on the beach in Fiji....... Well, then it's Game Over, isn't it? Everyone will want one and China will oblige.


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## J.B. Weld (Aug 13, 2012)

It depends on how the legalities shake out but I think there may well come a time when electric assist is the norm and "pedal bikes" will be considered hardcore in the same way single speeds are now.


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## Mr Pig (Jun 25, 2008)

Harryman said:


> I'd worry about newb riders killing themselves there though on an ebike..


I don't.


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## Klurejr (Oct 13, 2006)

J.B. Weld said:


> It depends on how the legalities shake out but I think there may well come a time when electric assist is the norm and "pedal bikes" will be considered hardcore in the same way single speeds are now.


you mean by the time I am in my 60's I will be considered "hard core" for pedaling my MTB up hills.... lol.


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## J.B. Weld (Aug 13, 2012)

Klurejr said:


> you mean by the time I am in my 60's I will be considered "hard core" for pedaling my MTB up hills.... lol.


You heard it here first.


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## Harryman (Jun 14, 2011)

Klurejr said:


> you mean by the time I am in my 60's I will be considered "hard core" for pedaling my MTB up hills.... lol.


That's only 5 years from now for me, I'm so ready to be hard core.


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## Mr Pig (Jun 25, 2008)

Klurejr said:


> you mean by the time I am in my 60's I will be considered "hard core" for pedaling my MTB up hills.... lol.


There is a steep short-cut at Glentress that I pedal up. I have never seen anyone else pedal up it. I'm sure others have but I've never seen them. At the top of it the other day my son, who is nineteen, said 'How do you manage to pedal up that?'. I said 'You just refuse to give up, that's all.'

Heck, it's not that hard now. The first time I did I do think I came close to a heart-attack ;0) I honestly like pedalling up hills. I feel a greater rush than after a fast decent.


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## Klurejr (Oct 13, 2006)

Mr Pig said:


> There is a steep short-cut at Glentress that I pedal up. I have never seen anyone else pedal up it. I'm sure others have but I've never seen them. At the top of it the other day my son, who is nineteen, said 'How do you manage to pedal up that?'. I said 'You just refuse to give up, that's all.'
> 
> Heck, it's not that hard now. The first time I did I do think I came close to a heart-attack ;0) I honestly like pedalling up hills. I feel a greater rush than after a fast decent.


There is a hill like that in my local riding area, it is like climbing a 2 story building in about 50-70 feet, brutally steep, but short. Took me a few years before I could finally get the right cadence and keep my weight balanced properly to have enough grip but not flip over backward. Such an amazing feeling the first time I cleared it, on my super heavy Kona Coiler none the less. Maybe I am already Hard Core?


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## life behind bars (May 24, 2014)

Klurejr said:


> There is a hill like that in my local riding area, it is like climbing a 2 story building in about 50-70 feet, brutally steep, but short. Took me a few years before I could finally get the right cadence and keep my weight balanced properly to have enough grip but not flip over backward. Such an amazing feeling the first time I cleared it, on my super heavy Kona Coiler none the less. Maybe I am already Hard Core?


That flirts with Pro Core.


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## Mr Pig (Jun 25, 2008)

Klurejr said:


> Such an amazing feeling the first time I cleared it, on my super heavy Kona Coiler none the less.


I don't think the weight of the bike matters one bit on stuff like that. If you can climb it you'll do it on anything. If you can't, a light bike ain't gona help you.


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## Walt (Jan 23, 2004)

Oh, bike weight matters. But only in the context of the whole vehicle including the cargo/rider. For your average rider, that means even 5 pounds of weight is probably imperceptible when actually riding up a hill. 

-Walt


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## portnuefpeddler (Jun 14, 2016)

Mr Pig said:


> Forever. I'm sure the price will come down but they will never be cheap. Reasonable quality mountain bikes are already expensive, average joes don't buy those as it is, so no way they'll stump up for an ebike which costs even more.
> 
> I predict that some of the people who have ebikes at the moment will get bored with them, especially when they need costly parts, the battery fades, they break down and have to be pushed for miles etc. As they get older they'll get less reliable. I expect you'll see really cheap ones hit the market soon and they'll be even less reliable.
> 
> In short, I think it will always be a small market.


 In your dreams..... Unlike your theoretical musings, probably based on what you've learned here on this site, everyone I know who has gotten into them (after many decades of all types of two wheeled play) have become obsessed with them. Especially after it becomes clear (through many miles of riding) that the only downside is a few pennies worth of electricity. And not only that if you produce your electricity as I do, not even that, but I digress.... sure I've had things break and wear out: tires and tubes, a broken derailleur hangar, bent handle bars, bent brake levers, but the e drive has been totally trouble free. Coming up now on 4 K miles of much rougher riding then the average groomed and maintained single track you probably ride in your designated bike park.

Walt also has it wrong, the moto guys I know and ride with, now leave their moto's parked, they are gathering dust, along with their conventional mountain bikes, all they ride now is their ebikes. Not want you guys want to hear and I'm sure there are exceptions, but these things are neater then **** and funner then hell, and a great bang for the buck, and yeah, they still give you a workout. And, I'd like to see talk about them being for "out of shape" riders bandied about after a 3 hour ride to places conventional bike riders avoid like the plague as they are too technical and difficult.

Even though I abuse my cheapie add on BBSHD power units, letting mud and cowshit build up on them without clearing the cooling fins, expecting the multiple streams I ford a day to provide adequate cleansing, they keep plugging along, and with zero noise. If either one of my two BBSHD's took a crap tomorrow, I'd IMMEDIATELY order another, they have already provided more in fun then they cost me in dollars, they and the Bikes Direct purchased fat bike plus my Montague folder I carry in my plane, cost less then a "reasonable quality mountain ebike." If you believe the easily avoided high price of the store bought high dollar Levos, Haibikes, etc. is going to slow newbies down, think again.

Bored with them? The opposite is the common experience among the riders I know, who have more two wheeled experience of all kinds then you have probably been alive. We all agree that these damn things are somehow filling a gap in our two wheeled experience we didn't know we had, we ride every day unless work interferes. In my case, instead of going flying tomorrow (a thing I've been obsessed with 45 years, NOTHING gets in the way of that) I am heading back to the site I tried to ride today, until I got a flat tire, and I plan to totally kick it's ass while seeing where the trail takes me, all legal BTW, once again thank God I live where I do, and I sure as hell won't see any mtbr's on this trail, it's too steep and rocky for them and they like to hang with their buds in town riding the established single track there. Yesterday I got up at 3:30 and drove 150 miles to see where a trail I had spotted from the plane earlier in the week led, the day before that the same thing at another site. Beating the heat later in the day was the plan

I'm sure the buggy whip manufacturers had similar discussions when the first car came along, "just a fad, they won't last, too complicated and expensive!" Having said all that, sure they, along with bikes in general, are a niche market I guess


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