# 5 reasons why you need to buy your bike today - the summer bikepocalypse is coming



## Ogre (Feb 17, 2005)

Or.. just review and tune up your existing bike inventory. Give them all a pat on the seat and tell them they are good bikes. 

Then pick a couple sacrificial lambs you can sell for a premium in the coming used bike sellers market.


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 1996)

Ogre said:


> Or.. just review and tune up your existing bike inventory. Give them all a pat on the seat and tell them they are good bikes.
> 
> Then pick a couple sacrificial lambs you can sell for a premium in the coming used bike sellers market.


Exactly!!! First and last paragraphs of the article. If you don't need to get caught up in the storm, be the puppetmaster and sell a couple of your old bikes at a premium. And make sure your old bike is dialed for an awesome riding season.


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## KingOfOrd (Feb 19, 2005)

Mountain biking sucks, don't try it
👽


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## Troll on a Bike (Feb 12, 2021)

I don't think the clusterf*** in the Suez Canal is going to help much.


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## trulede (Sep 12, 2018)

I don't buy it. If all these new riders got bikes in 2020, and don't go back to the Gym/Couch in 2021 ... why are they going to buy a bike again this year?

Already here, in Germany, the new Scalpel with Lefty 120mm lands for the past month, an expensive bike (too expensive if you ask me) and I don't know ... did any get sold? I still see them in stock - I would buy one if the price was fair(!). A specialized dealer has Epic EVO frames in stock, so far no one buys them, situation is static because the price is too high. There comes a point where a frames made in a low cost Countries, which now cost _more_ than frames made in a _high_ cost Countries, it becomes too much of a joke.

The "law of economics" actually works differently. If people _need_ something which is scarce then the price can increase. However, for things people don't need, they just buy something else. I would suggest what really happened is that people who typically have a higher disposable income could not do anything with their money because of the COVID, so they spent their money on new bikes. I don't think that will be happening this year, they will buy something else.

Now I can get a nice BMW motorcycle for the same price as high end mountain bike. I'm not sure that makes sense.


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## slimat99 (May 21, 2008)

A smart person wouldn't buy today. A smart person will wait for the bubble to burst which will probably happen soon considering how fast vaccinations are happening, and pick up something on the used market which will be flooded. Panic buying now makes no sense. You'll be overpaying to likely compromise on what you really want. Just chill. The used market is going to be insane! It's good right now if you need something asap. Yes people are asking high prices but the used market isn't moving as fast as people think. You can still talk down prices like always. The stuff I've been selling hasn't moved much faster than normal, and I'm not asking high prices like some. 

I do agree a percentage of covid riders will stick with it, but the vast majority won't. Play your cards right people and you'll be shopping an all you can eat buffet of lightly used stuff for killer prices.


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## dundundata (May 15, 2009)

I picked up a bike last year, now it's OOS until 2022. Glad I got it because it was definitely new bike time.


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## RickBullottaPA (Mar 4, 2015)

I've been building up a nice inventory of spares for my current bike(s). At least two of everything. It's been really spotty to find stuff. 

I would also suggest that everyone (including OEMs, particularly smaller ones) be SUPER careful of counterfeit crap.


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 1996)

trulede said:


> I don't buy it. If all these new riders got bikes in 2020, and don't go back to the Gym/Couch in 2021 ... why are they going to buy a bike again this year?
> 
> Already here, in Germany, the new Scalpel with Lefty 120mm lands for the past month, an expensive bike (too expensive if you ask me) and I don't know ... did any get sold? I still see them in stock - I would buy one if the price was fair(!). A specialized dealer has Epic EVO frames in stock, so far no one buys them, situation is static because the price is too high. There comes a point where a frames made in a low cost Countries, which now cost _more_ than frames made in a _high_ cost Countries, it becomes too much of a joke.
> 
> ...


Fair question. A lot of the new mountain bikers, aka Covid riders, bought $500 bikes. And they I'm sure they were mortified by that price at that time. A percentage of them are perfectly happy with that. But then there's going to a lot of them who've explored the trails, experienced the magic and want more. They know they like the activity and will be looking to step up. $1500-$3000 will be more palatable to them now because they'll start understand the benefits suspension and dropper post, etc.

And then there is going to be a few of those riders who will get absolutely hooked with mountain biking. They'll be absolutely hooked and may even become lifestyle riders or N+1 mountain bikers.

Personally, I know about a dozen of these riders in San Jose, They all have a fancy bike already. One has 4 mountain bikes and three of them are looking for their second steed. And they all just started riding last year.

It's always a funnel and a matter of percentages on who becomes a regular and a hardcore rider. The pandemic gave us a very big funnel.


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 1996)

slimat99 said:


> A smart person wouldn't buy today. A smart person will wait for the bubble to burst which will probably happen soon considering how fast vaccinations are happening, and pick up something on the used market which will be flooded. Panic buying now makes no sense. You'll be overpaying to likely compromise on what you really want. Just chill. The used market is going to be insane! It's good right now if you need something asap. Yes people are asking high prices but the used market isn't moving as fast as people think. You can still talk down prices like always. The stuff I've been selling hasn't moved much faster than normal, and I'm not asking high prices like some.
> 
> I do agree a percentage of covid riders will stick with it, but the vast majority won't. Play your cards right people and you'll be shopping an all you can eat buffet of lightly used stuff for killer prices.


If I could give advice to friends who already have a bike, I'd tell them to dial that in perfectly and be happy with it. Especially if money is tight.

But there are folks that don't have a decent bike yet. And there are lot of rich folks out there discovering biking. There are also quite a few folks without the annual international vacations, trips to Vegas and dining out many times a week, and they'd rather spend their money on something that gets them out there and improves their health.


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 1996)

RickBullottaPA said:


> I've been building up a nice inventory of spares for my current bike(s). At least two of everything. It's been really spotty to find stuff.
> 
> I would also suggest that everyone (including OEMs, particularly smaller ones) be SUPER careful of counterfeit crap.


Hey buddy, you have any 4-piston shimano brakes? Venmo?


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## RickBullottaPA (Mar 4, 2015)

Francis Cebedo said:


> Hey buddy, you have any 4-piston shimano brakes? Venmo?


Yeah, I'm holdin'. But you can't afford them. ;-)


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## RickBullottaPA (Mar 4, 2015)

Francis Cebedo said:


> Hey buddy, you have any 4-piston shimano brakes? Venmo?


Pro tip: you can (usually) get just Shimano 4 pot calipers and use them with existing levers.


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 1996)

RickBullottaPA said:


> Pro tip: you can (usually) get just Shimano 4 pot calipers and use them with existing levers.


I have exactly that sitting in a box. Just gotta do that swap and bleed.


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## IMeasure (Oct 5, 2020)

RickBullottaPA said:


> I've been building up a nice inventory of spares for my current bike(s). At least two of everything. It's been really spotty to find stuff.
> 
> I would also suggest that everyone (including OEMs, particularly smaller ones) be SUPER careful of counterfeit crap.


100% me too on buying spares. I have accounts with many of the big suppliers here in Australia and in the USA. If you want 3 different parts, chances are you need 2 or 3 different stores.

Here is a good example, had a back in stock alert on Shimano D02s breakpads from one of the biggest suppliers. These are almost impossible to find. My alert arrived in my inbox at 9am, they had 50 pairs. They were all gone when I checked a couple hours later.

Literally 100% of the popular part suppliers capacity is going to new bikes. Sure there are some exceptions, but this means the days of easily finding the spare you need, when you need it are gone for many parts. Want that cheap Shimano deore 12 speed derailleur for $60? Sorry we only have an XTR for $270.


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## braddytompson (Mar 26, 2021)

Hi, Francis. Can you give me advice about these bikes? In your article (The Best Mountain Bikes Under $1000 for 2021), I found this bike (https://www.walmart.com/ip/Schwinn-Axum-Mountain-Bike-8-speeds-29-inch-wheels-black/288838682). I liked how it looks. But I do not know how to choose the right bike, by what parameters. I want to drive around the city and sometimes get out of town (I have a house outside the city and I need to carry lawn sprinklers and other stuff there).

UPD. I'm a newbie here. Sorry, if I wrote in the wrong place...


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## Ogre (Feb 17, 2005)

Troll on a Bike said:


> I don't think the clusterf*** in the Suez Canal is going to help much.


You noticed the 14th container from the top left side says Shimano on it too?


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## Troll on a Bike (Feb 12, 2021)

Ogre said:


> You noticed the 14th container from the top left side says Shimano on it too?


I wonder if this was an intentional act to further disrupt the worlds economies?


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## AndyD66 (Mar 12, 2013)

I wonder how many covid bikes with 300 miles on them will go on sale used as soon as the bars and gyms re-open?


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## AndyD66 (Mar 12, 2013)

Troll on a Bike said:


> I wonder if this was an intentional act to further disrupt the worlds economies?


I wonder if you are serious.


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## Bikeworks (Sep 10, 2020)

This thread prompted me to order more tires (road and MTB). Weather is finally starting to cooperate in the Northeast and I don't want to be hamstrung by a lack of consumables; I rely on my lack of skills to hold me back.


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## disgustipated (Apr 29, 2006)

Bikeworks said:


> This thread prompted me to order more tires (road and MTB). Weather is finally starting to cooperate in the Northeast and I don't want to be hamstrung by a lack of consumables; I rely on my lack of skills to hold me back.


I've been buying consumables steadily for the last couple months. A few more sets of tires, a couple more chains, and I won't (probably) have to worry about anything for at least this year as long as I keep from breaking something big, like a shock or a frame.

EDIT. It occurs to me that I'm definitely not the only goon doing this, and it makes me wonder how much of the extra demand is exactly this type of thing. Sorry, not sorry.


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## Bikeworks (Sep 10, 2020)

disgustipated said:


> I've been buying consumables steadily for the last couple months. A few more sets of tires, a couple more chains, and I won't (probably) have to worry about anything for at least this year as long as I keep from breaking something big, like a shock or a frame.


Me too, but I just remembered tires. And now chains! ?



disgustipated said:


> EDIT. It occurs to me that I'm definitely not the only goon doing this, and it makes me wonder how much of the extra demand is exactly this type of thing. Sorry, not sorry.


 Definitely a fair point, but I can't imagine it's particularly significant.


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## monstertiki (Jun 1, 2009)

AndyD66 said:


> I wonder how many covid bikes with 300 miles on them will go on sale used as soon as the bars and gyms re-open?


I wonder that also, but I'm also betting a good amount of them will be hooked just like lots of us mtb addicts. Many of these covid bikers haven't had the chance to ride abroad or go to some of the fun bike festivals and gatherings.


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## mtnbkrmike (Mar 26, 2015)

That diagram at the beginning of the article appears to be lifted straight from the PB article. Or vice versa.


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## CrozCountry (Mar 18, 2011)

I started making tubeless sealant from a mix of mayonnaise, vodka and paprika. You have to keep the wheels in the fridge or they start smelling. One of the small sacrifices we have to make in a pandemic.


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## nOOky (May 13, 2008)

Francis Cebedo said:


> Exactly!!! First and last paragraphs of the article. If you don't need to get caught up in the storm, be the puppetmaster and sell a couple of your old bikes at a premium. And make sure your old bike is dialed for an awesome riding season.


One of the advantages of having "enough" bikes. It's going to rain here all day. So after I get my morning run in (I biked last night) I am going to tune up, wipe off, and offer for sale no less than 3 bikes on craiglist. My wife's road bike, used to train and compete in one triathlon. My old singlespeed flat bar bike, and my wife's old yet new looking mountain bike.

I was even of thinking of selling my road bike and current cyclocross bike for a better gravel bike since I don't ride road anymore much, but I can't purchase what I want right now ugh.
Thanks for the article.


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## RrlFish (Mar 2, 2021)

My partner is definitely a covid biker, she jumped on the expensive spin bike train early on in the quarantine. Which sparked something in her, so we picked her up her first mountain bike recently.

And I think a good percentage of these new mtbers are similar to this. They're people who have partners who have always been into it, and needed something to do together or simply needed to bust out of their indoor bubble and mountain biking is a safe way to do that. It also seems like quite a few people (myself included) are getting back into the sport in a bigger way after some time off or casually biking.

We both bought new bikes in the last year, hers a Canondale Habit in SLX which seemed pretty easy to find. Though in the time we were in the shop fitting and setting up with the tech no less than 3 people asked the tech to try her bike. According to the tech they've been selling a lot more $2-3k bikes than usual, but the higher end bikes are selling before they even get to the shop. My Mojo HD5 was much harder to find because they (Ibis) were waiting on components (also SLX) it seems as though big bike brands are still pumping out their mid level bikes, but smaller boutique brands are having trouble sourcing parts.

I think in the next year there will be more of this sort of supply chain disruption. But like all bubbles it'll eventually burst. When it does I can't wait to pick up a 300 mile short travel 29er for cheap.


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 1996)

braddytompson said:


> Hi, Francis. Can you give me advice about these bikes? In your article (The Best Mountain Bikes Under $1000 for 2021), I found this bike (https://www.walmart.com/ip/Schwinn-Axum-Mountain-Bike-8-speeds-29-inch-wheels-black/288838682). I liked how it looks. But I do not know how to choose the right bike, by what parameters. I want to drive around the city and sometimes get out of town.
> 
> UPD. I'm a newbie here. Sorry, if I wrote in the wrong place...


I actually reviewed that bike here! Review: Schwinn Axum - best under $400 bike from Walmart?

It's a very good bike for the money as a bike like that typically costs about $700. The big issue is it's hard to find in stock. So if you find one, grab it.

$600-$900 is a good place to start looking for a bike that is ready for trails. Look for 29-inch wheels, a front shock and disc brakes to start with. Most important is get the right size for you.


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 1996)

AndyD66 said:


> I wonder how many covid bikes with 300 miles on them will go on sale used as soon as the bars and gyms re-open?


There may be a few of those popping up in 5-10 years. Folks tend to hang on to their stuff, even more in uncertain times.

And used selling is painful for most.


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 1996)

nOOky said:


> One of the advantages of having "enough" bikes. It's going to rain here all day. So after I get my morning run in (I biked last night) I am going to tune up, wipe off, and offer for sale no less than 3 bikes on craiglist. My wife's road bike, used to train and compete in one triathlon. My old singlespeed flat bar bike, and my wife's old yet new looking mountain bike.
> 
> I was even of thinking of selling my road bike and current cyclocross bike for a better gravel bike since I don't ride road anymore much, but I can't purchase what I want right now ugh.
> Thanks for the article.


Right on bud, the article will hopefully mobilize some so move or move their fleet. Hard to predict exactly what's gonna happen but the supply+demand equation is going to worse before it gets better in the enthusiast bike category.

The saying applies: *"The longer you wait, the longer you'll be waiting."*


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 1996)

RrlFish said:


> My partner is definitely a covid biker, she jumped on the expensive spin bike train early on in the quarantine. Which sparked something in her, so we picked her up her first mountain bike recently.
> 
> And I think a good percentage of these new mtbers are similar to this. They're people who have partners who have always been into it, and needed something to do together or simply needed to bust out of their indoor bubble and mountain biking is a safe way to do that. It also seems like quite a few people (myself included) are getting back into the sport in a bigger way after some time off or casually biking.
> 
> ...


Yup, my wife started riding mountain bikes last year (after 20 years of me trying to get her into it). She's using a Levo emtb and that is the gamechanger since she can ride with me on thee 2000-5000 foot climbs from home, everyday. So yes, she's riding everyday now. She's seen 20 different mountain peaks in the area and learned to descend in a short time. I'm pretty sure she will always ride mountain bikes from here on.


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 1996)

monstertiki said:


> I wonder that also, but I'm also betting a good amount of them will be hooked just like lots of us mtb addicts. Many of these covid bikers haven't had the chance to ride abroad or go to some of the fun bike festivals and gatherings.


The sure conclusion is.... some will give it up and some will get hooked. The exact %s will be in question. But for sure, there will be more bike addicts and regulars because of this turn of events.


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 1996)

Bikeworks said:


> This thread prompted me to order more tires (road and MTB). Weather is finally starting to cooperate in the Northeast and I don't want to be hamstrung by a lack of consumables; I rely on my lack of skills to hold me back.


Rrrright? There are enough obstacles out there so we can't be underbiked in this environment!


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## planetx88 (Mar 24, 2012)

HOARDING. As defined in Merriam-Webster- Not a rational behavior, but a compulsive, anxious one. Different than just "higher demand." Higher demand is related to lots of new riders and interest, people buying whole bikes, and doing maintenence as needed. But when you have riders intentionally overstocking on chains and brake pads and tires and then talking about it, it begets more of this specific behavior from other people. News gets around, then all of a sudden the toilet paper and JO4C Metal pads are gone, not because of more poopsies and dirty bums, or conversely, more late braking and shredding of all the things, but simply because people heard it was a thing happening in every grocery store, so they says to themselves "maybe I need to stock up on sh*t tickets too."

Large online retailers, bigger brands, and even larger bike store chains are all contributing to this, as this comment thread indicates. People stocking up on 12speed shimano chains right now sure arent doing that at many LBS (there are the lucky few, but they are the lucky _few)_. Probably going to the Big J, Big C, the other Big C, the other-other Big C, the Big U, or the Big A (thanks Jeff!). How did those companies get that stuff? Hoarding!


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 1996)

planetx88 said:


> HOARDING. As defined in Merriam-Webster- Not a rational behavior, but a compulsive, anxious one. Different than just "higher demand." Higher demand is related to lots of new riders and interest, people buying whole bikes, and doing maintenence as needed. But when you have riders intentionally overstocking on chains and brake pads and tires and then talking about it, it begets more of this specific behavior from other people. News gets around, then all of a sudden the toilet paper and JO4C Metal pads are gone, not because of more poopsies and dirty bums, or conversely, more late braking and shredding of all the things, but simply because people heard it was a thing happening in every grocery store, so they says to themselves "maybe I need to stock up on sh*t tickets too."
> 
> Large online retailers, bigger brands, and even larger bike store chains are all contributing to this, as this comment thread indicates. People stocking up on 12speed shimano chains right now sure arent doing that at many LBS (there are the lucky few, but they are the lucky _few)_. Probably going to the Big J, Big C, the other Big C, the other-other Big C, the Big U, or the Big A (thanks Jeff!). How did those companies get that stuff? Hoarding!


Yup, there is a line between hoarding and stocking up and it's going to get crossed more and more as folks go to a store many times and find it out of stock. For example, you go to a shop to buy an inner tube and after 10 visits, see that it's out of stock each time. On the nth time that you find stock, how many to buy...

fc


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## Ogre (Feb 17, 2005)

After looking around a bit, wound up paying too much for a Levo EMTB _Today_ for my wife. While she's been riding for years, she never does as many miles as I do so there is always this big disparity between myself and her. Took the new bike out almost immediately and it was an instant hit. She was pulling away from the group on climbs and hanging with our group when she'd otherwise be struggling the whole time.

Not sure it'll stick, but it fixes so many logistics issues we have when we're riding I'm pretty sure it's a near guarantee she'll ride with us more.


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 1996)

Ogre said:


> After looking around a bit, wound up paying too much for a Levo EMTB _Today_ for my wife. While she's been riding for years, she never does as many miles as I do so there is always this big disparity between myself and her. Took the new bike out almost immediately and it was an instant hit. She was pulling away from the group on climbs and hanging with our group when she'd otherwise be struggling the whole time.
> 
> Not sure it'll stick, but it fixes so many logistics issues we have when we're riding I'm pretty sure it's a near guarantee she'll ride with us more.
> 
> View attachment 1923476


OMG, omg... Char got a bike. Keep us posted. The timing is great and this be an incredible month for here. Only downer is your height disparity and you can't take it out for real rides.


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## Ogre (Feb 17, 2005)

Francis Cebedo said:


> OMG, omg... Char got a bike. Keep us posted. The timing is great and this be an incredible month for here. Only downer is your height disparity and you can't take it out for real rides.


Will do. Right now our success ratio is 100%.

She absolutely loves being able to hang with us. I'd never really thought about how awesome the ebike is as an equalizer, enabling stronger and weaker folks ride in a group until one of my (older) friends started riding with us on his Ebikes. Then it just clicked.


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## gojira (Jan 30, 2004)

I just ordered my wife a Pole Taival TR hardtail with 27.5" wheelset from Pole Bicycles in Finland. 
Supposedly it'll ship in a couple of weeks.

I'll probably be ordering one for myself later in the summer. 
Right now, they're almost completely out of Taival frames, so they're scheduled for a new production run soon with shipping to start in June or July.
Hopefully. I'll be able to get one before the summer ends.









Taival - Pole Bicycles


Riders and press praise the Taival as a hardcore hardtail mountain bike for its aggressive trail riding and enduro capabilities. Available in hot colours.




polebicycles.com


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## mfennell70 (Jan 29, 2021)

Great article and comments. While I've been expecting vaccinations to finally stop the madness, the sales pressure is showing no sign of letting up. It's not just the newbies. On Sunday, we noted that all 4 of us (all longtime MTBers) had new bikes. We're all in fortunate situations - working from home and riding more, while spending less on commuting, eating out, and travel. N+1 time.

I have a nice '11 S-WORKS hardtail updated with XX1, Valors, Fox step cast, etc. In Normal Times I wouldn't have bought a new bike but all that extra riding got me thinking ... and now I have a new Supercaliber. Ordered in mid-Jan (!), it took a month to get as long as it was black. Red was 3-4 months out. No idea what the situation is now. For Trek, I know Top Fuels are sold out until 2022. Any Santa Cruz is the same deal. A friend ordered a Scott Scale in the fall - delivery was just pushed back to July.

The local trails have been filled with nice, older 26ers too. How many of those riders are re-learning a love of cycling and will be shopping for new?


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## mschocket (Nov 16, 2006)

The big bike frame companies should take it easy on their elaborate product relates i.e. specialized, Santa Cruz It feels like an in your face we have it but you cant purchase for 16 to 24 months We have the budget for the fancy video thanks to our consumers.


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## Adventure-Biker (Feb 2, 2006)

trulede said:


> Now I can get a nice BMW motorcycle for the same price as high end mountain bike. I'm not sure that makes sense.


Been saying this for YEARS...


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## Caliborn (Mar 31, 2021)

It kinda irksome in a way, that all of a sudden people are buying up bikes, while many like me have been doing it since my 20s when it got popular in the late 80s and that’s what we keep doing as well as skiing(crowded home mountain now), surfing, windsurfing etc. Do these people really want $4,000 bikes?. Check out recent interview with Santa Cruz CEO YouTube where there is now up to a year wait for a new bike. Insane. Like “oooh what’s this mountain biking thingy?” 
Sounding like a snob but it’s a natural feeling to feel you are part of a special group apart from gym addicts who never did such things. I go to the beach and 95% of the people go in the water for 3 minutes or less...then sit on their chair all day


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## RrlFish (Mar 2, 2021)

Caliborn said:


> It kinda irksome in a way, that all of a sudden people are buying up bikes, while many like me have been doing it since my 20s when it got popular in the late 80s and that's what we keep doing as well as skiing(crowded home mountain now), surfing, windsurfing etc. Do these people really want $4,000 bikes?. Check out recent interview with Santa Cruz CEO YouTube where there is now up to a year wait for a new bike. Insane. Like "oooh what's this mountain biking thingy?"
> Sounding like a snob but it's a natural feeling to feel you are part of a special group apart from gym addicts who never did such things. I go to the beach and 95% of the people go in the water for 3 minutes or less...then sit on their chair all day


I get where you are coming from, but... more people in the sport means more advocates which means more trail systems and access.

Look what has happened in the last 10-15 years in the industry, I used to have to poach ATV trails here in the Northeast USA. Now I can travel to any town in New England and there are sanctioned mountain bike trails.

That comes from an increase in people participating, while I agree that some of the "gym-goers" are in it for the wrong (to us) reasons, many of them are likely to be hooked on the sport for the right reasons by the time they are able to go back to their regular fitness routine.

Don't let MTB turn into surfing out west. I have seen people close in on new surfers waiting on the line just for being new. If we teach and spread some passion for the sport, it goes a long ways towards creating a community, if we shun the new folks and make them feel unwelcomed they will go poach trails that they are not supposed to be on just to avoid the "in" crowd, and they will damage the work that organizations are putting in to gain us traction on multi-use trails (pun intended)

I know this seems very kum ba yah. But in the end it is about access.


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 1996)

RrlFish said:


> I get where you are coming from, but... more people in the sport means more advocates which means more trail systems and access.
> 
> Look what has happened in the last 10-15 years in the industry, I used to have to poach ATV trails here in the Northeast USA. Now I can travel to any town in New England and there are sanctioned mountain bike trails.
> 
> ...


Participation by more people is one of the keys to more access and more building. It also helps if they're rich, activist, own a lot of land and come from diverse backgrounds (not just young and middle-aged dudes).


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## RrlFish (Mar 2, 2021)

Francis Cebedo said:


> Participation by more people is one of the keys to more access and more building. It also helps if they're rich, activist, own a lot of land and come from diverse backgrounds (not just young and middle-aged dudes).


Yeah folks with money to throw around are coming into the sport in droves too, hopefully, they are as cool as their brand new bikes are!


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 1996)

A good exercise now, call three of the major Local Bike Shops in your area and ask for if they have any of the 'hot' bikes in stock. (Ibis Ripmo, Santa Cruz Hightower, Bullit, Specialized Stumpy Evo, Levo, Yeti) and see what they have or what the wait time is.

And then ask two months from now. Just curious.


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## Ogre (Feb 17, 2005)

Three rides in and I'm in love with Char's new ebike. 

Did our usual Wednesday nighter and instead of her bailing out after 2-3 miles, she was with us for almost the whole ride. The only big gaff was neither of us thought about lights for her so she ended the day poaching someone's lights!

Not only was she hanging on the climbs, because she was still plenty fresh and able to push the bigger bike around, she was more confident on the technical sections. I am stoked about our Tahoe trip just need to get milage up.


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 1996)

Ogre said:


> Three rides in and I'm in love with Char's new ebike.
> 
> Did our usual Wednesday nighter and instead of her bailing out after 2-3 miles, she was with us for almost the whole ride. The only big gaff was neither of us thought about lights for her so she ended the day poaching someone's lights!
> 
> Not only was she hanging on the climbs, because she was still plenty fresh and able to push the bigger bike around, she was more confident on the technical sections. I am stoked about our Tahoe trip just need to get milage up.


How are you able to keep up with her? Or how will you in the future?

Does she have a 500wh or 700wh battery? If she has the 500, she can climb 5000 feet in eco/trail mode and that's a lot to keep up with.

One thing that will happen is she will be way more fresh (than before) a the top of climbs and start of descents so she will be more dialed. And after a month or so, she will get way more practice and reps so the progression will ramp up. Couple that with coaching and technique she will be dialed.

How much was this bike?


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## Ogre (Feb 17, 2005)

Francis Cebedo said:


> How are you able to keep up with her? Or how will you in the future?
> 
> Does she have a 500wh or 700wh battery? If she has the 500, she can climb 5000 feet in eco/trail mode and that's a lot to keep up with.
> 
> ...


She's abusing me already on climbs. Her and another friend take up the back of the pack and gab the whole way up the climbs like they are standing around in the parking lot.

I believe the 700wh battery. We did 10 miles last night, 1300 feet of climbing and the charge only dropped 1 bar. That was mostly on medium assist with some big climbs on Turbo.

We paid $7500 for the bike. Not even sure the model we just paid asking. I didn't want to risk not finding one and her not being able to participate our coming road trip. So far this thing is bomber. Paid too much, worth it.


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 1996)

Ogre said:


> She's abusing me already on climbs. Her and another friend take up the back of the pack and gab the whole way up the climbs like they are standing around in the parking lot.
> 
> I believe the 700wh battery. We did 10 miles last night, 1300 feet of climbing and the charge only dropped 1 bar. That was mostly on medium assist with some big climbs on Turbo.
> 
> We paid $7500 for the bike. Not even sure the model we just paid asking. I didn't want to risk not finding one and her not being able to participate our coming road trip. So far this thing is bomber. Paid too much, worth it.


Right on. That's a 700wh battery. If you have a 2000+ foot climb she can tow you up with this crazy bungee tow rope called Towhee. It's really a magic carpet ride as there's no tugging sensation. https://www.amazon.com/TowWhee/dp/B...child=1&keywords=towhee&qid=1617302162&sr=8-1

Both riders get a workout but there's no waiting, maybe just a lot of chatting.


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## Ogre (Feb 17, 2005)

Francis Cebedo said:


> Right on. That's a 700wh battery. If you have a 2000+ foot climb she can tow you up with this crazy bungee tow rope called Towhee. It's really a magic carpet ride as there's no tugging sensation. https://www.amazon.com/TowWhee/dp/B...child=1&keywords=towhee&qid=1617302162&sr=8-1
> 
> Both riders get a workout but there's no waiting, maybe just a lot of chatting.


This is the model she got:









Turbo Levo Comp | Specialized.com


We designed the Turbo Levo Comp to be a proper trail bike, first and foremost. It takes geo, kinematics, and design cues from our newest trail bikes, like the Stumpjumper, and adds industry-leading tech that gives you the power to ride more trails. New motor? Check. New battery? Check...




www.specialized.com





Ironically, we have a tow rope for times when I've towed her.


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## Cag05 (Apr 5, 2021)

trulede said:


> I don't buy it. If all these new riders got bikes in 2020, and don't go back to the Gym/Couch in 2021 ... why are they going to buy a bike again this year?
> 
> Already here, in Germany, the new Scalpel with Lefty 120mm lands for the past month, an expensive bike (too expensive if you ask me) and I don't know ... did any get sold? I still see them in stock - I would buy one if the price was fair(!). A specialized dealer has Epic EVO frames in stock, so far no one buys them, situation is static because the price is too high. There comes a point where a frames made in a low cost Countries, which now cost _more_ than frames made in a _high_ cost Countries, it becomes too much of a joke.
> 
> ...


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## Cag05 (Apr 5, 2021)

Francis Cebedo said:


> Right on. That's a 700wh battery. If you have a 2000+ foot climb she can tow you up with this crazy bungee tow rope called Towhee. It's really a magic carpet ride as there's no tugging sensation. https://www.amazon.com/TowWhee/dp/B...child=1&keywords=towhee&qid=1617302162&sr=8-1
> 
> Both riders get a workout but there's no waiting, maybe just a lot of chatting.


Totally agree


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 1996)

AndyD66 said:


> I wonder how many covid bikes with 300 miles on them will go on sale used as soon as the bars and gyms re-open?


A few I'm sure. But I think more will stick to the biking thing after discovering the forest is less stinky than the gym. And trees and lakes are a wee bit better than mirrors.


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## stripes (Sep 6, 2016)

Francis Cebedo said:


> A few I'm sure. But I think more will stick to the biking thing after discovering the forest is less stinky than the gym. And trees and lakes are a wee bit better than mirrors.


I think that's going to be a multi-year trend. Not everyone who has a covid bike will give it up at the end of the season but maybe we'll see an increase steadily over the next 1-3 years.

It's really going to depend too. I'm pretty sure a lot of people took up drinking during the pandemic who might also prefer a bar to a bike at this point.


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## Ogre (Feb 17, 2005)

stripes said:


> I think that's going to be a multi-year trend. Not everyone who has a covid bike will give it up at the end of the season but maybe we'll see an increase steadily over the next 1-3 years.
> 
> It's really going to depend too. I'm pretty sure a lot of people took up drinking during the pandemic who might also prefer a bar to a bike at this point.


I'm kind of hoping it drops off. Wouldn't hurt my feelings if there were a return to the malls and movie theaters where there are people paid to clean their trash up. I am quite tired of seeing so many of my favorite outdoor places over-crowded and trashed over the past year.

I'm also ready for the post-COVID bike sales and second hand market.


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## Hardrake (Apr 25, 2015)

Skyrocketing price increases are a potential problem for people who bought mountain bikes just before the "Bikepocalypse." I bought a 2021 Pivot Switchblade Team XX1 AXS build in January for $10,400. I promptly insured my bike for the same value. However, Pivot is now selling the exact same bike for $11,300. So, if my bike is stolen tomorrow, my insurance payout won't cover the cost of the same bike. I'm assuming my insurance company won't allow me to increase the insurance value for more than what I paid for it? There must be a lot of other people like me who bought new bikes this year who could have the same problem with their insurance company.


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 1996)

Hardrake said:


> Skyrocketing price increases are a potential problem for people who bought mountain bikes just before the "Bikepocalypse." I bought a 2021 Pivot Switchblade Team XX1 AXS build in January for $10,400. I promptly insured my bike for the same value. However, Pivot is now selling the exact same bike for $11,300. So, if my bike is stolen tomorrow, my insurance payout won't cover the cost of the same bike. I'm assuming my insurance company won't allow me to increase the insurance value for more than what I paid for it? There must be a lot of other people like me who bought new bikes this year who could have the same problem with their insurance company.


Good share! Two side effects, one bad, one good:

1) When one's bike gets stolen or damaged, getting a replacement may not be possible this season or this year.

2) On the good side, Someone who bought a bike for $5k this year can potentially sell the same bike for $5500 or $6k next year... if the price increased and there are none in stock.

One line of thought is "this best bike today is the bike in hand!"


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